According to a new report just released by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), average sea level around the world is projected to rise anywhere from 8 inches to over 6 feet by 2100.  That seems like a large range, so what does that mean?  NOAA developed the sea level rise range based on four scenarios, that include varying amounts of ice sheet loss  in Greenland and West Antarctica and different levels of ocean thermal expansion (warming of the ocean waters).  From 1900 to 2000, the average global sea level rose 8 inches, so it seems safe to say that another rise of 8 inches would be the absolute minimum we could expect by 2100.  At the high end, a rise of over 6 feet would occur if global ice sheets melted at the worst-case rate between now and 2100.  However, the rate at which glaciers and ice sheets will melt is the greatest source of uncertainty in sea level rise projections. No one has the answer for this difficult scientific question, as there is a lot more that goes on with ice dynamics than meets the eye.

So what does all this mean for South Florida?  Regional projections in sea level rise are a tough, but necessary business. While we can try and hope for the best, officials need to plan for large changes in sea level. (Better safe than sorry, right?)  South Florida is particularly vulnerable, with a large population along the east coast and the unique and fragile Everglades to the west. Not to mention the fact that Florida sits on top a limestone bed, which is very porous and allows for rising seawater to intrude into our freshwater drinking supply. Also, even a small increase in sea level can lead to a greater chance for urban flooding events, especially during storms (think Hurricane Sandy).  We all know that South Beach already floods during an afternoon thunderstorm, so this could very well become a more frequent occurrence throughout South Florida.  And depending on the extent of sea level rise, some places could disappear altogether. In the images below, you can see what Florida will look like (and which areas will be underwater) if the sea level rises to a given level. If you want to experiment with what U.S. coastlines will look like as the sea level rises, go to NOAA’s Sea Level Rise and Coast Flooding Impact Viewer.

To learn more about sea level rise and storm surge threats, come visit our two exhibits Water, Wind and Waves: Miami in a Changing Climate, funded by NOAA, and Hurricanes, funded by the FIU’s International Hurricane Research Center.

The Miami coastline, with a 1 foot increase in sea levels. Shades of blue indicate areas underwater; green indicates low-lying areas.

The Miami coastline, with a 3 foot increase in sea levels. Shades of blue indicate areas underwater; green indicates low-lying areas.

The Miami coastline, with a 6 foot increase in sea levels. Shades of blue indicate areas underwater; green indicates low-lying areas.

]]> http://www.miamisci.org/blog/put-on-your-rain-boots-the-water-is-rising/feed/ 0 http://www.miamisci.org/blog/wall-of-wind/ http://www.miamisci.org/blog/wall-of-wind/#comments Thu, 04 Oct 2012 20:23:20 +0000 admin http://www.miamisci.org/blog/?p=2422 Continue reading →]]>

It’s been 20 years since Hurricane Andrew, and this summer the Museum is honoring the anniversary of the storm with a brand new Hurricane exhibit. Tragic and heroic stories from Andrew’s survivors are told, and now, the Museum is expanding the exhibit to include realistic interactive experiences that allow visitors to study hurricanes and their effects in the same way that scientists do. In the “Wall of Wind” activity, you can use a touchscreen to choose building materials and design strategies for a building, and then turn on virtual hurricane winds to test the strength of your structure. It’s just like what real scientists and engineers do at the International Hurricane Research Center at Florida International University. There, the real Wall of Wind consists of 12 fans, each 6 feet tall and with 700 horsepower, and can generate winds of up to 157 miles per hour – reaching category 5 hurricane strength. The goal is to see how buildings respond to “test hurricanes,” so that we can be as ready as possible for the real thing.

Future scientists test the strength of their building against a small-scale wall of wind

The real Wall of Wind at Florida International University